Situation update before Options Expiry Monday Nov. 23Submitted by gecko_x2 on Sun, 11/22/2009 - 13:17 |
radio.goldseek.com/shows/2009/11.21.2009/GSR-11.21.09-cc.mp3
Ed Steer writes:
Yesterday was November 20th, and that's the day that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation updates their website with October's data. On the "Data Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity" page, they showed that they purchased another 500,000 "fine troy ounces" of gold. This brings their total gold bullion position to 19.5 million ounces. It's my guess that none of this gold reported was purchased was from Gokhran, the company that was about to sell up to 50 tonnes of gold on the open market. I would suspect that those purchases [now mentioned at 30 tonnes] are still forthcoming... and will show up in either November's or December's updates. If that's the case, then the Russian Central Bank is going to report adding at least another 960,000 ounces of gold to their reserves before they close the books on 2009. We won't know the final number until their December update which will occur on January 20th... if they follow the same update procedure for the year end.
Show below is the usual monthly graph of Russia's bullion purchases over the last three year period. My back-of-the-envelope arithmetic shows that the Russian Central Bank has added 2.8 million ounces of gold to their reserves so far in 2009... and if my above hypothesis is correct, they're going to add about another 1 million ounces before the end of the year. I thank Richard Nachbar [and his tireless assistant, Susan McCarthy] for providing this graph. Richard Nachbar is a rare coin dealer in upstate New York whose website coinexpert.comis linked here.
*What else is new? There is an option expiry Monday. The Gold Cartel’s drill over the years has been to take gold down into and on the option expiration day. The Gold Cartel does so to protect their massive short positions. In essence this is the US Government ripping off the general public, through their surrogates like JP Morgan Chase, in an attempt to thwart the free market system. The problem is the sheriff sworn to protect the law … in this case is the US Government and the CFTC. How do they get punished when they are the ones who are supposed to enforce the law?
What was stunning today was how The Gold Cartel got stuffed yet again with one of their standard planned attacks. We are seeing this "stuff" pattern time and time again of late.
*The Gold Cartel’s traders don’t realize, or don’t know how to handle, the "new buyers." In days of old they would suck in the spec longs, getting shorter and shorter as the price went higher and higher. Then they would pull the plug by dumping physical gold into the market and bombing the derivatives paper market. Eventually fund longs would sell as the technicals turned bearish. The market would cascade down with a number of funds eventually going short. The Gold Cartel would cover and up we would go again.
This time the buyers are the biggest of money … countries, largest hedge funds, etc. They are competing against each other and want to buy more gold on any dips The Gold Cartel hands to them. It shows in the price action.
Source (Must Read): http://news.goldseek.com/LemetropoleCafe/1258908502.php
SA gold miners on final deathwatch as scientist finds gold reserves more than 90% less than claimed
Research shows that production rates should fall permanently below 100 tonnes a year within the coming decade
Author: Barry Sergeant
Posted: Tuesday , 17 Nov 2009
JOHANNESBURG -
The apparent bottom line in a paper published in the South African Journal of Science is that South Africa's gold industry is on final deathwatch, despite claims of massive existing below-ground reserves. Chris Hartnady, research and technical director of Cape Town earth sciences consultancy Umvoto Africa, has found that South Africa's Witwatersrand goldfields are around 95% exhausted, and anticipates that production rates should fall permanently below 100 tonnes a year within the coming decade.
Gold production from the Witwatersrand, the biggest known gold field in the world, peaked at around 1,000 tonnes in 1970 and has declined ever since. Hartnady says that while initially (1970-1975) the decline was "quite precipitous", it has been interrupted by only short periods of slight trend reversal (1982-1984 and 1992-1993).
Leon Esterhuizen, a London-based specialist analyst at RBC Capital Markets, has reacted to the research by saying that "South African gold is dying -- this is not new news", but adds "that it may be dying faster than we currently believe is novel". On the levels of reserves, Hartnady finds that the South African "residual gold reserve" after production through 2007 is only 2 948 tonnes, a little less than three times the 1970 production figure, and much less than 10% of the officially cited reserve.
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